Robeco: EZB enttäuscht Anleger
Zwar werden die Depotzinsen gesenkt und das QE-Programm ausgeweitet, dennoch entäuschte Mario Draghi die Märkte, die nach seinen Ankündigungen mehr erwartet hatten.07.12.2015 | 10:19 Uhr
Main market events
All European bond markets sold off this week after the disappointing ECB meeting on Thursday.Although Draghi announced a rate cut and an extension of QE, markets expected even moreafter his recent very dovish speeches. Italian bonds have returned 4.4% this year, Portuguesebonds 3.8%, Irish bonds 1.3% and Spanish bonds 1.8%.
ECB
The ECB decided to cut the interest rate on the deposit facility by 0.1% to -/-0.3% and to extendthe asset purchase program with 6 months to at least March 2017, which amounts to EUR 360bln additional bond buying. They also added regional bonds to the list of eligible assets.
Portugal
The Portuguese Parliament voted against a motion, introduced by the centre-right opposition, toreject the government program of the recently-appointed Socialist Party. This outcome officiallygrants power to the socialist government, ending a two-month political gridlock.
Greece
The Bank of Greece announced a reduction in the amount of Emergency Liquidity Assistance,available for Greek banks by EUR 8bln, due to improvement in banks’ liquidity situation.
Spain
The Spanish Constitutional Court unanimously ruled against the Catalan pro-independencemotion, as it was in “absolute contradiction” to the Spanish Constitution.
Ireland
The Finance Minister expects the 2015 budget deficit to be close to 1.7% of GDP, significantlylower than the original 3% target. This is mainly due to improvements in corporation tax.
Robeco Euro Government Bonds
We continue to see the ECB’s QE program, the generally supportive stance of EU policy makerstowards the periphery and the improvement in growth as positives for peripheral debt. But to alarge extend these positives are already reflected in current valuations. We therefore prefer tofocus on relative differences between countries in the periphery.
We further reduced exposure to Italy this week as valuations are becoming stretched. Currentlythe fund has overweight positions in Portugal and Ireland versus underweight positions inSpanish and Italian bonds. Portugal benefits disproportionately from QE and strong economicgrowth is rapidly improving the Irish debt metrics. Peripheral bonds make up 25% of the fund.Year-to-date the fund’s absolute return is 1.33%.