Robeco: EZB - QE-Programm weiterhin notwendig
Mario Draghi betont, dass die EZB zu weiteren geldpolitischen Impulsen bereit sei. Griechenland wird die ausstehenden 1,6 Milliarden Euro Ende Juni in einer Transaktion an den IMF überweisen.08.06.2015 | 08:57 Uhr
Main market events
Interest rates in core markets rose significantly last week. Yields of peripheral countries also rose,but to a lesser extent than for example German Bunds. Representatives of the IMF, ECB, and theEuropean Commission met with Merkel and Hollande last Monday to come up with a more orless final offer to Greece, after months of negotiations had failed to lead to an agreement.Portuguese bonds have returned 1.1% this year, Italian bonds 0.2%, Irish bonds -1.1% andSpanish bonds -1.3%.
European Central Bank
Mario Draghi reaffirmed the need for full implementation of the QE program. He also stressedthat the ECB was ready to add to the monetary policy stimulus if necessary.
Greece
The Greek government decided to bundle all the June IMF debt repayments (adding to EUR 1.6billion) into a single transaction at the end of the month. The first payment of EUR 300 millionwas due Friday 5 June. Prime Minister Tsipras will brief parliament Friday night on the state ofnegotiations, after which a debate between party leaders will take place. According togovernment ministers the creditors’ proposal is “much more painful” than measures theprevious government was asked to adopt.
Italy
The ruling Democratic Party won five regional elections out of the seven held last Sunday.Although these results are quite strong, support for Renzi is less overwhelming than at theEuropean Parliamentary elections in May 2014.
Portugal
According to the Portuguese head of Treasury the planned early repayment of 87% of IMF loansgranted under the bailout program is estimated to generate savings of up to EUR 1.3billion.
Robeco Euro Government Bonds
We used this weeks’ spread tightening to reduce our Spanish exposure to neutral. We continueto see the ECB’s QE program, the generally supportive stance of EU policy makers towards theperiphery and the improvement in growth as positives for peripheral debt. However, as weexpect the complicated Greek negotiations to continue to drag on peripheral performance, wereduced our overweight position in the periphery further. The fund now has an overweightposition in Irish bonds versus Germany and an underweight in Italian bonds versus Germany. Thefund has no exposure in Portuguese bonds anymore. Peripheral bonds make up 39% of the fund.Year-to-date the fund’s absolute performance is -0.87%.