Threadneedle: Beschleunigung des Dividendenwachstums in Europa
„Dieses Wachstum resultiert aus verbesserten Unternehmensgewinnen, die vom makroökonomischen Umfeld angetrieben werden“, schreibt Threadneedle-Fondsmanager Nick Davis in seinem jüngsten Viewpoint zu europäischen Aktien.31.01.2014 | 11:06 Uhr
Challenges remain as Europe strives to resolves its issues, but we are encouraged by the developments that have taken place over the past 18 months. There is more to be done and the European Central Bank (ECB) must remain vigilant over the threat posed by deflation. That said, there are good reasons for optimism. Purchasing Managers’ Indices have recovered, current accounts have rebalanced, some progress has been made towards banking union and company managements believe the nadir in Europe has been reached. Moreover, we are at an early point in the European profit cycle and the gap between US and European profit margins should start to narrow.
Corporate balance sheets are also strong in historical terms. We do not expect a wholesale re-risking of balance sheets (i.e. companies taking on more debt), but as confidence improves, businesses may put any spare cash to use either through capital expenditure or M&A. More importantly, healthy balance sheets enable and encourage progressive dividend policies. In terms of our strategy, we will focus on picking companies that can make good decisions that achieve attractive returns for shareholders.
What happens if bond yields rise?
Some fear that higher-yield stocks will prove vulnerable to any rise in bond yields – even though the policy currently pursued by the ECB is a powerful reason why bond yields should not deteriorate in the foreseeable future. However, the question of what happens when bond yields rise is certainly a valid one, given that dividend yield relative to corporate bond yield is one of the arguments advanced as to why equities offer good value.
The answer, we believe, is that there will be a divergence in performance between those stocks with high but static dividend yields and those with reasonable dividend yields that can grow dividends over time. Our clients should benefit from our strategy of favouring companies with solid balance sheets, which should perform well (at the expense of weaker competitors) if the cost of servicing debt increases.