Threadneedle: Industrieländer erholen sich von Finanzkrise
„Während der Wirtschaftsaufschwung in den USA bereits während des ganzen Jahres ein Thema für die Finanzmärkte war, sind seit kurzem auch Zeichen der Verbesserung in anderen entwickelten Volkswirtschaften zu beobachten“, sagt William Davies, Aktienexperte bei Threadneedle.24.09.2013 | 13:30 Uhr
As summer fades and an autumnal chill enters the air in the northern hemisphere, the developing world appears to be emerging from the long economic winter that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. In this viewpoint, William Davies surveys the global economy and highlights those stocks and sectors we favour.
While the US economic recovery has been a feature of financial markets this year, it is only recently that signs of improvement have become established in other developing economies. According to figures released in August, the eurozone emerged from recession in the second quarter of 2013 after a record 18 months of economic contraction. The good news has continued – August orders for goods made in the eurozone, for example, came in at their fastest rate since May 2011.
European economic indicators are improving
Europe, over the worst?
Our base case for Europe remains a slow and protracted economic recovery. However, we believe the worst is now over and are taking advantage of relatively attractive valuations. We continue to avoid stocks in the periphery, and heavily indebted businesses, which are at risk should negative growth shocks emerge.
We have recently taken positions in the Swiss bank UBS and Continental, a leading German autoparts supplier. UBS has been making progress downsizing its investment banking operations, where it has lacked the scale to compete effectively. The bank is strengthening its capital position and focusing on wealth management, an area where it is a global leader – boasting a relationship with half the world’s billionaires.
Continental is benefiting from a strengthening global automotive industry, and rising auto sales. Even in austerity-hit Europe there are grounds for optimism. Car sales in Germany, France and Spain rose in July. Sales of premium cars, many of which are equipped with Continental’s safety features, have rebounded in the US, and a growing Chinese appetite for luxury brands provides further support.