Threadneedle: US-Energierevolution treibt Wachstum an
„Die Entwicklungen im US-Energiesektor haben zudem weitreichende geopolitische Auswirkungen", sagt Rohstoff-Experte David Donora.25.09.2013 | 10:41 Uhr
You have to go back to the early 1970s to find the last time that oil production increased in the US. However, at that time demand was also increasing at a much faster rate than production and thus the positive impact of rising oil output was more than offset by growing imports. By contrast, and as a result of changing demographics and improving efficiency, demand is currently declining and this trend is likely to continue.
The technological advances that enable oil and gas to be extracted from shale, and Washington’s support for the exploration and production industry are the key factors behind the significant growth in energy output, a trend that will continue for several years. As a consequence, the US is now materially less dependent on oil imports from outside of North America - it imported 40% of its oil requirements in 2012, down from 60% in 2005. This decline in dependence on foreign oil has major implications for the global economy and geopolitics.
The global implications of the US energy revolution
Over the past decade, technological advances have allowed access to large volumes of shale gas that were previously uneconomical to produce. The production of natural gas from shale formations has rejuvenated the natural gas industry in the US. In addition, North America has the only meaningful growth in oil production worldwide and, as a result of these two developments oil imports into the US are falling. As a consequence, the US is singlehandedly relieving the pressure on OPEC and helping oil prices to recede from levels that have rationed demand for over two years. Consequently, one of the essential preconditions to improved global growth, namely adequate and preferably abundant supplies of reasonably-priced, oil-based energy, is now in place.
When we consider North American crude oil and biofuels production in total, and isolate imports from outside the US/Canada/Mexico bloc, the speed and magnitude of the US energy revolution becomes clear. North America will add a further 0.8 - 1.0 million barrels per day (mbd) of production by the end of 2013 (to put this in context, the US consumes around 18 mbd), and at current crude oil prices this trend will continue. Meanwhile, tougher fuel standards, driving the development of more efficient trucks and cars, will likely keep oil imports on a downward trend.