UBS: Global Perspectives March 17

Aktien

Die Aktienmärkte konnten ihre Gewinne auch im März weiter ausbauen. Starke Produktionszahlen weltweit unterstützen die Märkte und erlauben den Schluss, dass sich die Konjunktur in den Industrie- und den Schwellenländern weiter verbessert.

Anleihen

Im März erzielten Anleihen unterschiedliche Ergebnisse. Britische inflationsgebundene Anleihen erzielten Gewinne, nachdem die Inflationsrate in Großbritannien infolge der Brexit-Entscheidung erstmals seit 2013 über dem Ziel der Bank von England lag. Die Risikoaufschläge von US-Hochzinsanleihen erhöhten sich angesichts deutlicher Schwächen des Ölmarktes. Bei hochwertigen Anleihen stiegen die Risikoaufschläge hochwertiger US-amerikanischer und britischer Anleihen, während die europäischer Anleihen geringer wurden.

Währungen

Der Mexikanische Peso setzte seine Rallye fort. Gründe dafür sind der nunmehr positivere Ton der US-Regierung über die künftigen Handelsbeziehungen und die zurückhaltende Zinserhöhung der Fed, die den US-Dollar schwächte. Starke Wirtschaftsdaten lassen den Australischen Dollar aufwerten. Der Euro ist weiter attraktiv, während der Schweizer Franken auf lange Sicht zu den teuersten Währungen weltweit gehört.

The month in review:

• The end of March marked the start of at least two years of extraordinary uncertainty as the United Kingdom formally began the process of withdrawing from the European Union.

• The Fed announced an expected quarter-point increase in interest rates—the third hike since the start of the current hiking cycle. This was accompanied by chairperson Janet Yellen signalling an accelerating pace of rate hikes throughout 2017, which was subsequently echoed by other key Fed policymakers.

• Global equity markets extended their first-quarter gains further this month. European equities paved the way, driven by the rejection of anti-euro politicians in both Austria and the Netherlands. US equities posted small positive returns, in contrast to February, despite labor market data coming in ahead of expectations. The laggard amongst major markets was Japan, where equity markets delivered negative returns.

• Fixed income returns were more mixed during March. There were positive returns within UK index-linked bond markets, which were supported by inflation rising sharply above the Bank of England’s target for the first time since 2013. Within credit markets, US high yield assets saw widening in spreads due to significant weakness in oil markets. In the investment grade universe, US and UK spreads slightly widened while European spreads tightened.

Outlook:

• While data supports continued improvement in the US economic outlook, a high level of uncertainty remains around President Trump’s policies and the scale of fiscal action is likely to remain constrained by budgetary realities. In terms of positioning, we are currently taking a small overweight to global equities, while retaining a small underweight to global duration in general terms.

• Outside of the US, we see more attractive valuations and the improving growth backdrop as broadly supportive of equities. In Europe, we continue to believe that the European recovery story is gathering momentum. Initially supported by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) loose policy and a weak euro, along with bank balance sheet restructuring now largely over, we view the recovery as increasingly self-sustainable. Despite the Dutch election result, geopolitical risks remain high ahead of major elections in core eurozone countries, with the first round of the French presidential elections taking place in April. We see these risks as well flagged and, to a degree, already reflected in valuations.

• While structural deflationary forces, including aging populations, are likely to act as a rebalancing mechanism to significant further U.S. Treasury yield rises in the medium-term, there are still risks of shorter-term upside inflationary surprises due to commodity price rises and stronger-than-expected wage growth. Against this backdrop we, therefore, continue to retain a positive view of inflation-linked U.S. Treasuries. However, we also see nominal U.S. Treasuries as offering attractive carry on a relative basis globally and particularly versus German bunds.

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